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The Resource A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons, by R.J. Renard and M.J. Daley and S.K. Rinard

A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons, by R.J. Renard and M.J. Daley and S.K. Rinard

Creator
Contributor
Summary
The Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones is reviewed. The numerical component (HATRACK) represents geostrophic steering of the cyclone by the Fleet Numerical Weather Central's smoothed isobaric height fields at 1000, 700, and 500 mb. The statistical component refers to the correction for bias in the numerical steering. The paper introduces an improvement in application of the statistical correction for bias. The enhanced scheme, MODIFIED HATRACK, is applied to forecasts of all named North Atlantic tropical cyclones in 1967 and 1968 and to a select number of 1967 North Pacific tropical storms and typhoons. The accuracy of MODIFIED HATRACK is found to excel the official forecast and that of the National Hurricane Center's NHC-67 technique for all forecast intervals through 48 hours. MODIFIED HATRACK errors range from an average of 40 nautical miles at 12 hours to 240 nautical miles at 48 hours. Such figures represent a 60 percent and a 10 percent reduction in errors, respectively, compared to official forecasts in the Atlantic. For the Pacific, the error reductions are of the order of 15 percent. (Author)
Language
eng
Work
Publication
Extent
1 online resource (31 pages
Note
  • "10 January 1970."
  • Title from cover
  • "10 January 1970"--Cover
  • "NPS-5IRD0011A"--Cover
  • DTIC Identifiers: Hurricanes, typhoons
  • Author(s) key words: Forecasting, tropical cyclones, tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, numerical
Link
Instance
Label
A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons
Title
A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons
Statement of responsibility
by R.J. Renard and M.J. Daley and S.K. Rinard
Creator
Contributor
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
The Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of tropical cyclones is reviewed. The numerical component (HATRACK) represents geostrophic steering of the cyclone by the Fleet Numerical Weather Central's smoothed isobaric height fields at 1000, 700, and 500 mb. The statistical component refers to the correction for bias in the numerical steering. The paper introduces an improvement in application of the statistical correction for bias. The enhanced scheme, MODIFIED HATRACK, is applied to forecasts of all named North Atlantic tropical cyclones in 1967 and 1968 and to a select number of 1967 North Pacific tropical storms and typhoons. The accuracy of MODIFIED HATRACK is found to excel the official forecast and that of the National Hurricane Center's NHC-67 technique for all forecast intervals through 48 hours. MODIFIED HATRACK errors range from an average of 40 nautical miles at 12 hours to 240 nautical miles at 48 hours. Such figures represent a 60 percent and a 10 percent reduction in errors, respectively, compared to official forecasts in the Atlantic. For the Pacific, the error reductions are of the order of 15 percent. (Author)
Cataloging source
OAL
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1923-
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Renard, Robert Joseph
Government publication
federal national government publication
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
no index present
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
  • technical reports
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
  • Daley, M. J
  • Rinard, Stephen K
  • Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Hurricanes
  • Typhoons
  • Numerical weather forecasting
  • Statistical weather forecasting
Type of report
Technical report; 1970.
Label
A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons, by R.J. Renard and M.J. Daley and S.K. Rinard
Link
Instantiates
Publication
Note
  • "10 January 1970."
  • Title from cover
  • "10 January 1970"--Cover
  • "NPS-5IRD0011A"--Cover
  • DTIC Identifiers: Hurricanes, typhoons
  • Author(s) key words: Forecasting, tropical cyclones, tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, numerical
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 15)
Color
black and white
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (31 pages
Form of item
online
Governing access note
"Approved for public release; distribution unlimited"--Cover
Other physical details
illustrations)
Specific material designation
remote
Label
A recent improvement in the Navy's numerical-statistical scheme for forecasting the motion of hurricanes and typhoons, by R.J. Renard and M.J. Daley and S.K. Rinard
Link
Publication
Note
  • "10 January 1970."
  • Title from cover
  • "10 January 1970"--Cover
  • "NPS-5IRD0011A"--Cover
  • DTIC Identifiers: Hurricanes, typhoons
  • Author(s) key words: Forecasting, tropical cyclones, tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, numerical
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 15)
Color
black and white
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
1 online resource (31 pages
Form of item
online
Governing access note
"Approved for public release; distribution unlimited"--Cover
Other physical details
illustrations)
Specific material designation
remote

Subject

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